Inflation: Are we looking at goods times or more bad times?
With
inflation sitting at it’s lowest in a decade and half (1.5% below the Bank of
England’s target of 2%) and now finally below wage increases; are we set to see
an end to the longest economic squeeze since Victorian times?  Lets examine the evidence:
We
are already seeing a significant fall in oil prices, now approaching their lowest
since records began in 1989, and in all likelihood inflation will probably
follow.  Capital Economics have suggested
that the average household is set to benefit around £455 per year just in the
fall of oil prices alone.
We
are also likely to see a “tax cut” in other areas over the next coming months
and with low inflation and rises in wages this means our pockets are going to
be a little fuller than they have been over the last couple of years.
But
low inflation and falling prices are only good in the short term.  Over the long term, Economists have concerns
that we may see ‘bad inflation’ similar to that witnessed in the US in the
1930s when inflation continued to fall with wages following shortly
afterwards.  This kind of ‘bad inflation’
last longer, has weaker growth and therefore takes longer for the economy to
recover.
There
are already concerns that this is already starting to evidence itself in Europe
(not including the fall in oil prices), particularly in Greece.  In an attempt to prevent this, European
Central Bank is set to begin quantitative easing in the coming months and with
this carries risk and unpredictability.

So whilst
in the short term we are expecting to see cheaper prices, increases to wages
and an overall improvement in the standard of living, in the long term,
however, things are still uncertain for the time being.
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